Document Type

Student Research Paper

Date

Spring 2022

Academic Department

Business

Faculty Advisor(s)

Dr. Hossein Varamini

Abstract

Retirement systems are complex tools that are part of the financial systems of countries. There are different pension systems and retirement plans around the world, from the most sophisticated actuarial system to the emerging governmentally controlled one. The goal of this paper is to analyze the current retirement security level of the United States, France, Japan, and Morocco. It also aims to create an assessment model, inspired from the Natixis Global Retirement Index, that is capable of evaluating the retirement system of a country at a specific point in time. In this paper, we use it to assess the Moroccan Retirement System.

Using substantial Macroeconomic data over the period 2012-2021, the study provides a Regression model that allows to estimate the Natixis Index of Morocco to 10 Global Retirement Index with an accuracy of 94%. It also provides Neural Networks model but with a lower accuracy of 69 to 70%.

Most of the changes in the retirement system aim to reduce pension expenditure as a share of the Gross Domestic product. As common factors, the three countries' focus of the study increase their life expectancy and undergo great changes in disposable income and saving over generations.

Variables used in the model include; Retirement Type System: Government dominated system/ Private dominated/ Hybrid, Health Care Type System, GDP per Capital in USD, Inflation Consumer Price, Interest Rate, Average age of retirement, Life expectancy, Fertility Rate, Government debt in USD, Annual Growth Rate in Population, Average Government Spending in Pension as a % of GDP, and Human development Index.

Notes

Honors in the Discipline; BA 400 Senior Project in Business

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